January 12, 2026–Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D. for IIR News (Sugar Land, Texas)–The 2025-26 late-winter outlook is defined by short-term polar vortex variability, rather than a sustained cold regime. While seasonal temperature averages favor milder conditions across the southern U.S., sharp cold surges remain the primary risk driver for energy demand, grid reliability, and fuel logistics.
Guidance suggests the next three months will be shaped by short-term variability in the polar vortex, rather than locking into a long-term cold pattern. The polar vortex is an atmospheric pattern associated with the seasonal polar low-pressure system and associated winds; a disruption of this feature often leads to more variable conditions, where shifts in the jet stream can either usher in cold Arctic air or warm winds channeling north from the Gulf.
